The next decade will see the introduction of more wood/ thermoplastic composites, greater use of fast growing species like eucalyptus and the development of a new generation of multi-layered wood-based “super-panel sandwiches”.

These are among the predictions for the sheet materials and timber industries contained in the Medite 2016 Compendium. The 65-page publication, comprising 10-year forecasts written by experts from a range of business and disciplines worldwide, has been produced to mark the 30th anniversary of the launch of Medite MDF.

Marketing and sales director Geoff Rhodes unveiled the Compendium at Medite’s anniversary celebrations last week at the London Design Museum – an event attended by 150 people from the UK and global panel and wood sectors.

The pressure to produce instant returns, said Mr Rhodes, meant few businesses today had the chance to project much more than 10 months ahead, let alone 10 years. As part of its celebrations, Medite decided to buck the trend.

The initiative reflected the fact that the brand has always been forward looking: “Medite has led a revolution in design, construction and related applications, mouldings, shopfitting and the DIY market,” he said. “We love the challenge of shaping the future.”

The Compendium also marks the start of an ongoing project, the Medite 2016 Forum. This aims to co-ordinate other events and possibly publications focused on the “future growth potential and development strategies” for the sheet materials and wood sector.

“We’re bringing together the views of a wide spectrum of industry leaders and academics to provide a vision of opportunities and challenges,” said Mr Rhodes. “It’s because timber is renewable in a 10-year time-frame that makes this perspective for 2016 so significant.”

He maintained that there is a “spirit of optimism” running through the Compendium forecasts, but they also tackle the tough questions and pose challenges.

Time for new technology

The prediction that timber composites will make an increasing impact comes from Dr Vikram Yadama of the Wood Materials and Engineering Laboratory of Washington State University. “The forest products industry has to develop technology that is more environmentally benign to produce durable products,” he states. “Natural fibre composites offer a low investment technology that has advantages of flexible manufacturing. Non-wood fibres, low value species and wood residues are ideally suited to produce [them], providing an alternative in regions with a shortage of wood.”

Another Compendium contributor, American journalist Ward Williams, believes the wood-based sheet materials sector will play a role in helping tackle rising levels of worker migration from the developing to the developed world. “The panel industry will join agencies and humane bodies to provide suitable shelter and liveable neighbourhoods.”

French timber industry consultant Dominique Coutrout of UIPP predicts that the sector will also have to deal with growing demand for its raw material for other uses.

“More wood is used for energy production and manufacturers are increasingly unsure of finding enough to satisfy need.”

The answer to this problem, he concludes, is to develop new wood technologies to make maximum use of available fibre and ensure that the right material, notably recovered waste, goes to the bio-energy sector.

The timber industry must also focus on influencing the development of new product standards and trade regulation, according to Belgian Kris Wijnendaele, secretary-general of the European Panel Federation.

“The obvious example is the attempt by environmental regulators to harmonise legislation by taking the most stringent requirements from existing national standards when developing a new EU-wide scheme,” he said. “If the timber industry does not manage to steer developments, it may be confronted with a new regulatory framework which could make business virtually impossible.”

Henrik Lozeman of the Netherlands Timber Trade Association says that in the next decade tropical timbers will be increasingly substituted, including with thermally-treated wood. Dutch consumption of MDF and OSB will double and only certified panels will be sold, with FSC as the “standard”.

In the view of John White of the UK Timber Trade Federation, the reputation of wood as a “green solution to building needs will be higher than ever”. But he warns that businesses which “do not subscribe to the environmental agenda will not enjoy the success of those that do”.

Image building

In his forecast, Mike Botting, editor of TTJ’s sister title Wood Based Panels International, urges the timber industry to stop “competing with itself” and co-operate in improving its image with the consumer.

“We must get across positive messages about wood and its sustainability, environmental friendliness and unique fitness for purpose. Otherwise our markets will have shrunk by 2016.”

This view is echoed by French MEP Catherine Guy-Quint in her introduction to the Compendium. “The process aiming to extend wood use has to insert itself in the framework of political, industrial and consumer will,” she says, adding that, if this is achieved, the future will “belong to wood and those who use it”.

The Medite 2016 Compendium was edited by Peter Travis, chief executive of advertising agency cdp-travissully. For more details visit www.medite2016.com.