The slowdown in the UK economy is clearly causing concern industry-wide. Latest reports, in fact, suggest that it is on course for its weakest performance in 13 years, with rising oil and raw material prices blamed for a third-quarter decline in output. Weak consumer spending is also being linked to a large drop in domestic manufacturing orders. But indications are that while UK fire door manufacturing will not come through unscathed, it should weather the storm better than many other sectors.

Although the retail sector has suffered, the public and commercial sectors continue to do well. Non-residential, industrial, commercial and construction output, which includes factories, offices, schools, hospitals, retail outlets and leisure buildings, grew almost 10% in value terms in 2004 against 2003 and further growth is forecast to 2007.

There may be less confidence in the private non-residential sector as corporate weakness leads to postponement of maintenance programmes, but growth in government spending on improving schools and hospitals will boost the public non-residential sector. This is good news for timber fire doors as companies and institutions increasingly look to improve the safety of buildings.

Dramatic growth

British Woodworking Federation director Richard Lambert supports this outlook. “The fire door market has grown dramatically in recent years – we’re anticipating the third year of growth of between 13-15%,” he said. “We may not see growth continue on that scale, but there is every reason to be optimistic about the timber fire door market into the future, if the government can get its spending commitments into place, and our first impressions of the proposals to revise Approved Document B, which covers the Building Regulations on fire safety, are correct in suggesting that there will be an increased requirement for fire doors in housing.

“This quarter’s survey reflects the Construction Products Association‘s prediction that the overall construction market would tighten considerably over 2005 and 2006, but wouldn’t actually slip into decline. On that basis, perhaps we can take heart that it also predicts a sharp improvement in 2007.”

The surveys assess the timber fire door market in terms of the percentage of manufacturers experiencing a particular business trend, such as a sales rise, over those experiencing the opposite, expressed as a net balance.

The findings from the latest survey show that a net 21% of manufacturers sold more timber fire doors from July to September 2005 compared with the previous three months. Although this is a sharp reduction in the very strong growth reported in last quarter’s survey, it is still a good performance. Most manufacturers maintained sales and few sold less than the previous quarter.

A net 13% of manufacturers sold more timber fire doors in July to September 2005 than in the same 2004 period. Again, this is a notable cooling from the rate of growth in recent surveys but firms maintained the higher sales they had achieved.

Expectations

Expectations for growth weakened significantly both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. On balance, just 5% of manufacturers forecast growth in the three months October to December compared with the previous three. But in the main (just under 70%), manufacturers expect sales to remain the same.

Similarly a net 4% of manufacturers anticipate higher sales in the next quarter compared with the same quarter last year and just over half of the manufacturers interviewed expect no change.

Interestingly, a net 17% of manufacturers are more positive now about the overall prospects for the timber fire door market than three months ago. This compares with 48% in last quarter’s survey.

A net 22% of manufacturers put up prices compared with three months ago. Few reduced them and most kept prices the same. But on balance, and similar to last quarter’s survey, just over one in two manufacturers reported a rise in costs. Large manufacturers and firms in the north and south were most affected.

Thirty-three per cent of timber fire doors sold in the last year were sold as fire doorsets. Most manufacturers (83%) sell fire door frames and just over two-thirds supply additional components, such as fittings for fire doors. It is reassuring to see that most manufacturers also advise customers which components are required.

Manufacturers identified three main problems for the July to September period: a lack of skilled staff (71%), margin pressure (67%) and supplier price rises (50%).