UK tropical timber and wood furniture imports were sharply down in the first half of 2023. In value terms they were worth US$486m, 43% less than the same period in 2022, and by volume they were 24% lower at 203,600 tonnes.
Some decline was expected following surging demand through 2021-2022, with imports in the opening months of 2022 hitting their highest value since before the 2008 financial crises. The slowdown started in the summer of last year.
Economic stagnation and uncertainty are seen as further factors in the downturn. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) stated in August that it still expects the UK to avoid recession, but GDP is forecast to grow by just 0.4% this year and 0.3% next and is not expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels until Q3 2024. That’s the more upbeat prediction. The NIESR also says there’s a 60% chance of recession at the end of next year.
It puts the economic picture down to the pandemic, Brexit and the war in Ukraine, combined with monetary tightening to tackle inflation. Meanwhile the Bank of England forecasts a flatlining economy from now through 2026.
Some comfort for the tropical timber sector might be seen in aspects of the construction outlook. The UK Construction Products Association in its Q2 2023 state of trade survey showed heavy side building products experiencing its fourth consecutive quarterly downturn, but light side, where hardwood products are more prevalent, added to a run of quarterly growth that started in Q3 2020 thanks to “strong activity in commercial refurbishment, energy efficiency improvements and fit-out work”.
Total import value of all HS customs code Chapter 44 tropical wood products from January to June was US$273m, 31% less than the same period in 2022. In volume, imports fell by 15% to 147,400 tonnes. UK import value of tropical joinery products decreased 37% to US$104m, while imports of tropical plywood decreased 36% to US$63m, sawnwood 11% to US$59m and tropical mouldings/decking 31% to US$13m).
First half import value of joinery products (mainly doors) from Indonesia was US$52m, down 52% on 2022, while those from Malaysia fell 39% to US$13m, and from China 28% to US$16m.
In the same period, imports of tropical hardwood plywood were 10% lower at 108,100m3, although imports from China actually rose 48% to 47,500m3, with the proportion in tropical-faced on the increase.
Imports of Indonesian plywood in the first half were 24% lower at 26,900m3, from Malaysia 33% down at 21,300m3 and from Thailand 70% lower at 2,100m3. From a small base, however, hardwood plywood imports from Brazil were up 148% to 3,100m3 and from Paraguay 13% to 1,600m3.
The combined effects of Brexit, supply shortages and rising energy costs on the European continent saw UK imports of tropical hardwood plywood from the EU fall 35% to 4,300m3.
The first half fall in tropical sawnwood was less marked, with the total down just 2% at 54,000m3, with a larger share sourced from the EU, up 8% to 13,800m3. The latter was attributed in part to importers turning to EU processors to make up for the lack of kiln drying capacity in Africa. There was a large increase in sawn hardwood imports from Brazil, up 98% to 4,800m3, but this was offset by a significant decline in imports of Brazilian tropical hardwood decking/ mouldings (HS4409).
UK first half imports of tropical hardwood mouldings/decking fell 31% to 4,500 tonnes. This commodity group benefited in 2022 from shortages of non-tropical products due to the war in Ukraine. But high UK stocks and falling demand hit trade this year. Imports from Indonesia were down 43% at 1,500 tonnes, from Malaysia 20% at 1,300 tonnes, Brazil 86% at under 200 tonnes. But imports from the Netherlands increased 123% to 891 tonnes, and from Vietnam 300%, but to just 350 tonnes.
UK first half imports of tropical wood furniture were 53% down in value to US$213m and 40% in volume to 56,100 tonnes.
