As the UK softwood trade drifted back from the holidays, views were mixed on the opening market situation and the prospects for Q1 of 2026.
The New Year return followed an unexpectedly strong month in December for some as a number of merchants witnessed an upturn in demand during the last 4-5 weeks of trading.
Despite harsh winter conditions holding back work on many construction sites at the beginning of January, some softwood importers reported an impetus in demand from their merchant customers due to restocking and the need to meet re-scheduled site call-offs being brought forward.
Against this improving trend for some, other merchants were struggling for sales, and further up the chain, certain importers were still trying to offload landed stocks by offering below-market prices. These cheap offers had a wider effect across the industry by retarding necessary price increments to improve the value of softwood, which in-turn caused frustration among those suppliers eager to move forward and return to profitability.
From the shippers perspective, production cuts made over the last 6 months combined with improving demand and pricing structures in other markets such as Belgium and Holland, are expected to lead to a supply-driven market and inevitably price rises in the British market towards Q2.
On top of production cuts by Scandinavian mills, storms in early January impacted large areas of forest stands. In Sweden, the storm (locally named Johannes), caused large-scale windthrow, with early assessments projecting damages in billions of Kronor (SEK). The areas of Gävleborg, Dalarna and the coastal part of Norrland were the worst hit where an estimated 8 million m3 of logs were blown over.
The damage was not on the scale of the decimation caused by the storms Gudrun & Per in 2005 and 2007 respectively, but if the figure of 8 million m3 is confirmed, then in terms of log yields this could mean that up to 3-4million m3 of unplanned sawn wood could find its way into the marketplace. This will depend on the salvage condition of the material and accessibility to the effected forest areas.
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