The heat went out of the UK kitchen market in the first months of the pandemic. New build and refurbishment installations slumped when Covid-19 first struck and analysts say in early spring they were as much as 20% down on 2019 levels. Over the summer, however, as lockdown restrictions were relaxed, the sector picked up. And, despite the second wave lockdown, it now seems business did not shrink in 2020 as much as anticipated earlier in the crisis.

The prognosis for 2021 is for continued market value improvement. Manufacturers expect pent up demand to be further unleashed as the vaccination programme rolls out and third wave lockdown rules relax. They also anticipate the kitchen continuing to be among the beneficiaries of consumers spending money on the home saved from not taking holidays during the pandemic.

With many employees predicted to stick with at least an element of the remote working imposed by the health crisis, the kitchen is expected to be a focus too in conversion of homes to combined living and working spaces.

Some kitchen manufacturers additionally see wood playing a particular role in such makeovers. Increased home-working, they say, is coinciding with accelerated growth in conscious consumerism, with the buying public increasingly focused on the environmental impact of purchases. One already discernible expression of this, say makers, is preference for natural materials, including timber.

“There’s also evidence that consumers tend towards the traditional and natural in the wake of crises, be they economic, political or health-related,” said one kitchen designer. “After the trauma, they’re looking for comfort, reassurance and something they can rely on.”

According to AMA Research, going into 2020 the kitchen furniture market (including units, worktops and sinks) was set fair, with growth “driven by growing housebuilding”. But the pandemic saw sharp contraction, “with the real damage felt from April on, when restrictions closed most of retail”.

However, the next two years, says AMA, will see “rebounding growth”. Some consumers may continue to be cautious due to post-Brexit economic worries, but others, notably mortgage-free, over-55-year-olds, those with savings and equity in their homes, “may consider [kitchen] refurbishment regardless of economic climate”.

This perspective is largely shared by analyst JKMR in its latest Overview Report on the UK Fitted Kitchen Market, just revised to address pandemic impacts. This defines the fitted kitchen as fitted units, worktops, sinks/taps/ waste disposal units and integrated major domestic appliances (MDAs), plus ‘focus’ MDAs purchased with fitted cabinetry.

It said trade in the first 10 weeks of 2020 was robust. But then lockdown saw almost all kitchen outlets suspend trading.

Some suppliers reported customers still reluctant to allow installers into their homes when lockdown rules were eased, but most reported a pick up from May. Suspension of stamp duty on properties under £500,000 provided added market impetus and JKMR reports kitchen multiples using sales to further “re-energise” the market.

Through the summer quite a bit of earlier lost ground was recovered, thanks, said JKMR, to a strong upturn in retail sales (as against new build installations) and consumers were reported happy to spend.

“[Despite multiples’ sales], total kitchen budgets generally improved through 2020, with clients redirecting money earmarked for travel/leisure pursuits,” said JKMR.

AMA Research says its preliminary analysis indicates sharper market contraction, reporting kitchen worktop sales as an indicator 20% lower for the year. But JKMR projects that fitted kitchen installations for 2020 will be around 1.1 million, down 9.4% on 2019. It’s a significant dip, but represents a considerable claw back from Q2 levels. Moreover, due to the rising average kitchen spend, market value is predicted to be just 5% lower at £4.1bn. Within this figure, however, spending on cabinetry declined most, with consumers, it seems, diverting money to high end MDAs, notably fridge freezers and hygienic fittings, such as hands-free taps.

On import market share, JKMR projects that UK installations of UK-made kitchens fell 11% to 975,000, while German-made were down 7% at 92,000, French 13% at 15,000 and other imports 22% lower at 14,000.

Addressing routes to market, it predicts that Wren gained market share in 2020, with its combination of “pricing, credit terms and product matching client needs”. Howden’s Q2 turnover fell, but with a strong Q3 rebound it is expected to “at least maintain 2019 share by volume and value”. B&Q is predicted to gain market share, but a “dedication to sales” will curb value share growth, while Wickes is forecast to sustain value share better than volume as it “shifts from a trade to a consumer trading position”. Magnet, Homebase, IKEA and merchant multiples are predicted to lose value and volume share.

Independents, meanwhile, are expected to retain their overall slice of the market and see rising spend per client.

Due to construction’s stop-start performance in 2020, the direct contract kitchen sector’s overall share is forecast to be down, with the added challenge of Howden and importers targeting its market.

Quizzed on design, a number of kitchen makers highlighted their responses to the trend of homes doubling as work/study space.

“We saw a significant rise in kitchen upgrades to make them more desirable places to be and, as customers envisage home working as long-term, they’re happy to invest,” said Adrian Stoneham of Stoneham Kitchens.

Further evidence of this is greater use of IT in kitchens, with demand increasing for charging drawers, incorporating plugs and USB ports, and for “work station niches”.

Mr Stoneham also noted the trend to traditional design, albeit with modern twists.

“There’s a move to Shaker and framed kitchens, rather than slab fronted facades,” he said. “And within these styles, mixtures of colours and timber are in strong demand.”

Classic blue, Pantone colour of 2020, is especially popular teamed with timber, including walnut, oak and exotic veneers.

Naked Kitchens highlighted reinvention of islands to accommodate new demands placed on kitchens.

“They can provide space for home working and socialising,” said design director Jayne Everett. “We also expect to see them used increasingly as partitions to break rooms into zones, with multi-level designs further compartmentalising the space.”

In a similar vein, Stoneham adds cones or cylinders to islands as a separate space, using veneers, including exotics, for the body of the feature, topped with timber stave or end-grain work surfaces.

JKMR notes the terms biophilia, wellness and holistic design increasingly featuring in the kitchen design lexicon and makers anticipate these becoming more prevalent considerations following the experience of the pandemic and reported upsurge of keep fit and healthy eating triggered by the health crisis. As a natural, sustainable material and one with strong wellness credentials and biocidal properties, timber is increasingly finding favour, say manufacturers.

“Oak and walnut in various guises are in particular demand,” said Mr Stoneham. “Customers also seek structure to painted doors – hence painted oak, increasingly with enhanced grain structures are popular. Timber and veneer flourishes also add accents, with zebrano, macassar, burr oak, and masur birch particularly popular.”

Jamie Blake of Blakes of London reported a “shift to all things natural”, with use of solid timber and “strongly veined” veneers increasingly key, and he sees fluted and ribbed wood being big in 2021.

He agrees too that Shaker-style kitchens are back in the spotlight in “treated, but untreated-looking timber for a spiced-up country look”.

Naked Kitchens reports a trend toward “raw” materials.

“Exposed timbers are incorporated into designs, using timber throughout, or paired with earthy tones and natural colours,” said Ms Everett. She also cites oak and walnut as most popular choices, but finished in different ways, including limed grain and whitewashed effects.

Birch is also increasingly prevalent, underlining a move to ‘Scandi style’.

“And we find a lot of clients asking for birch ply to be showcased rather than covered up,” said Ms Everett .

Naked Kitchens is seeing strong demand for solid wood worktops too, including ‘super stave’ types, with boards running the whole length, and butcher’s block end-grain styles.

Andy Briggs, interior designer at Optiplan Kitchens, notes a trend to kitchens mixing colours and surface effects, with timber used as a contrast.

“You can play with textures of wood grains, matt finishes or sleek laminates. Using them in juxtaposition creates interest,” he said.

While oak and walnut might be their mainstay, Naked Kitchens also reports customers exploring a wider palette of hardwoods. “Our parent company, Norfolk Oak, makes worktops and other kitchen furniture in iroko, sapele, mahogany, cherry, maple, ash and more,” said Ms Everett. Naked agrees too that customers are “increasingly mindful of the environment”. Consequently it stresses its timber’s FSC-certification and its “holistic” supply chain policy, ensuring traceability from source.

With the kitchen sector hit by renewed lockdown in Q1 2021, JKMR forecasts volume sales this year unlikely to increase markedly. But it predicts per client spend continuing to rise, increasing market value 3-3.5%.

It also maintains that longer term market indicators are positive. Kitchen spend will keep climbing as home-work practices seeded in the pandemic put down permanent roots, with 80% of respondents to a recent O2 survey expecting to work at least one day a week from home post-lockdown and a third three days.

Demographic change is also expected to have positive market impacts. Further growth in multi-generational households – of which there are already 5 million in the UK – is expected post-pandemic and into the future, says JKMR, with more of the younger generation unable to live independently and older people more reluctant to go into care.

“This would drive demand for redesigned and larger kitchens to accommodate multiple users,” it concludes.