Timber frame is expected to account for 27% of new housing by 2017, according to a new report released by the Structural Timber Association (STA).
The Timber Trends report paints an optimistic and encouraging picture for the timber construction sector.
It analyses the market growth of timber frame housing from 2013 and forecasts growth to 2017 when around 50,000 new timber frame housing units are projected to be built.
Naturally, the STA is delighted about the positive projections and it believes a number of factors are pushing developers to build more with timber frame.
"The advantages of high quality, quickly built timber frame homes and commercial buildings have become increasingly recognised by a wider audience, not least by the government where the benefits that timber frame provides will help meet new home building targets," said Andrew Carpenter, chief executive of the STA.
"These benefits are increasingly enjoyed by construction companies, as recently confirmed by the adoption of timber frame as a mainstream method by Barratt Developments plc and with similar large scale operations also in the process of turning to structural timber solutions."
Growth in housing starts
The report shows that since 2013 there has been a steady increase in overall house starts, with more than 150,000 homes built per year. Timber frame recorded a 2% increase of market share between 2013-2014.
2014 UK housing starts were up by 9.4%, (just over 14,000 homes) to 163,000 homes, with England registering an 8.5% growth. UK private sector housing starts were up by 12% (14,250 more), while the public sector was down by 1% (185 less).
Market commentators such as the Construction Products Association (CPA) have been reducing their housing starts forecasts for 2015 and beyond.
The CPA predicts 2015 UK housing starts will grow around 5% but the Timber Trends report suggests that as housing starts in England have only grown by around 1% in the first six months, then double-digit growth in the private sector is needed for the second half to meet the predicted figure.
On the positive side, timber frame manufacturers are forecasting volume growth 2-3 times greater than other building methods. This, the report says, suggests that the timber frame market will continue to expand over the next three years and beyond.
Regional Breakdown
The timber frame new housing share in the UK rose to 24.6% in 2014. England’s share rose to 18.5%, Scotland’s increased to 76.5%, while market shares fell in Wales and Northern Ireland to 24.6% and 19% respectively.
Timber frame new housing volumes grew to 40,200 units in 2014 – the highest growth rate in timber frame new home building this century. Non-timber frame housing was up 5.6% to 123,560.
The report highlights that England was responsible for much of the UK timber frame growth. The country experienced sector growth of nearly 30%, compared to about 5% for non-timber frame.
English timber frame units grew to 25,000 from just over 19,000 in 2013, with London and the Southeast being a major driver of this growth.
In Scotland, nearly 2,000 more new timber frame homes were built, up by 17%.
Housing Types
For all new UK housing starts the aggregate increase was comprised of approximately 4,800 more detached homes, 4,600 terraced homes, 3,500 semi-detached homes and less than a 1,000 additional flats.
The growth for timber frame was driven from the one to two storey homes category with around 31,300 units built in 2014, exceeding the level of the pre-recessionary year of 2007 (29,000 units). The over twostorey category, which accounted for more than 22,000 such timber frame homes in the boom year of 2007, saw a 9% growth last year giving a total of 9,000 units.
The STA report highlights a significant change in terms of housing types in 2014. The timber frame share of new detached homes rose to 30% in 2014 from 25% in 2013.
"Approximately 40% more detached timber frame homes were built in England in 2014 than in 2013," added STA CEO Andrew Carpenter.
The timber frame share of the semidetached and terraced sectors was around the 24%/25% mark in 2014. The weakest area, in market share terms, was in flatted developments where timber frame held a 19% share.
Forecasts for the future
Housing starts under current forecasts are predicted to modestly grow to around 185,000 units by 2017, compared to over 200,000 predicted last year.
Timber frame manufacturer forecasts for 2015-2017 reveal a further strengthening of the sector’s position in the housing market. In each of these years, timber frame is expected to grow at a faster rate than for other methods of construction.
The Timber Trends report says timber frame’s market share is expected to rise by a further percentage point in 2015 to 25.6% followed by a similar increase in 2016, to 26.6% and to 27% in 2017.
Private sector timber frame growth in 2015 is predicted to be around 13%, reducing to 10% in 2016, compared with the CPA’s forecast of private sector housebuilding growth of 9% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016.
The report concludes that timber frame housing volumes will be positive over the next three years, culminating in the highest level of timber frame housing ever achieved at around 50,000 units in 2017.
This would generate growth for timber frame over the next three years of 12% in England, 44% in Scotland, 36% in Wales and 52% in Northern Ireland.
"There exists a great positivity about timber frame and the future as timber frame is predicted to grow at a faster rate," the report concludes.
In terms of industry production capacity, output is forecast to be in the region of 44,200 units (capacity – 58,200 units) in 2015, indicating a capacity utilisation of around 76%, which gives room to meet increased future demand.
Large manufacturers which produce 1,000+ units a year now account for 56% of production, while the number of firms in the 0-99 homes category has reduced.
What must not be forgotten is the important role the STA has played. Its work includes technical, marketing, training and political lobbying activities.
It has a suite of technical information, including bulletins, advice notes, practical guidance such as "Site Safe" and design and build technical documents to answer the information needs of the construction sector.
In addition, people attending STA seminars and exhibitions reached record proportions in 2014, while membership numbers have recently increased to more than 350, a significant increase since its creation (from the UK Timber Frame Association) in 2013.
