Mike Snow answers decisively when quizzed which country will be ‘the next China’ in global timber and particularly hardwood demand.

“The new China is China,” said the American Hardwood Export Council (AHEC) chief executive. “It’s so far only scratched the surface in terms of manufacturing and consumption potential.”

Mr Snow delivered his perspective at the Timber Trade Federation’s new Hardwood Conference held at IOM3 in London. At the AHEC-sponsored London event he joined other speakers from trade and key consumer and specifier sectors to develop a holistic trade view and spark more forward thinking. To reinforce his point, Mr Snow swept his arm down a map of China’s eastern seaboard. “That’s the area international trade and manufacturing has really penetrated. Now China is actively developing the rest.”

The Chinese hardwood market also continues to evolve, he added.

“It was the screwdriver economy, importing low grades for re-export as manufactured goods. Today most hardwood imports are for increasingly upmarket domestic consumption.”

The US industry has reoriented too.

“The US construction crisis saw hardwood mill output fall from 12 to 8 billion board feet and it’s still recovering,” said Mr Snow.

“That and declining domestic grade lumber demand triggered strategic shifts to exports, which now account for 19.7% of output.”

AHEC forecasts continued US exports growth, though not all heading China’s way. “Europe still punches above its weight as a customer and particularly design and architectural trends,” said Mr Snow. “That’s why our largest overseas office is here.”

Rupert Oliver of Forest Industries Intelligence said European sawn hardwood demand dipped from 8 million m3 pre-crisis to 5 million m3, with UK sales down 100,000m3 to 400,000m3, albeit now America’s biggest European market. This resulted from lower consumption and higher log exports. Adding interest now, however, is rising UK domestic hardwood output.

“Forest growth could see UK log production rise from 500,000m3 currently, to 3 million m3 in the 2040s,” he said. Recently, he said Europe’s tropical market had struggled due to slow economic recovery, perceived legality risk and substitution.

“The onus now is on the industry to provide legality and sustainability assurance – and it will be interesting to see if FLEGT licensing increases Indonesia’s exports,” he said. “It must also find new uses for hardwood generally, building on work with engineered products and thermo-treatment. Yield and efficiency developments are also important, such as Danzer’s lamella slicer, which produces thicknesses to 2.5mm.

In the face of rising competition from other materials and markets, Andy Duffin of Lathams said the UK trade should focus more on training and hardwood’s positive story.

“We’re losing the expertise to educate customers on timber value, so it’s increasingly down to price, making it difficult to move forward collectively,” agreed Ken Walsh of Danzer UK.

“We need more training in schools and colleges,” added Chris Powell of CP Timber. “We need the trade’s next generation.” Continued innovation was vital too, said John Dowd of International Timber.

“Today customers demand the wood they need, hence the rise of composites. There’s progress, but we’re playing R&D catch-up.” AHEC European director David Venables said the trade must continue to build even closer ties with architects. “We’re working with John Lewis, which, like others with a 100% FSC procurement policy, has been wedged into a procurement corner,” he said.

“They need to know about viable alternatives.”

Mr Snow joined the theme. “We have other tools now; carbon footprint, life cycle analysis, legality studies. We needn’t be on the sustainability certification defensive.” Kirsty Whyte, Heals buyer and designer, said furniture retailers would appreciate more timber sector input.

“We’d especially like to learn about alternative species. There’s always an opportunity to specify something new for a range launch or update.”

Luke Rowett of Michaelis Boyd Associates echoed this from the architects’ perspective.

“We want to create exciting new things in wood, but we’re frustrated by lack of timber knowledge.”

Andrew Lawrence, of engineers Arup, highlighted the potential outcome of closer liaison between trade, construction and specifier sectors, in the form of Arup’s work with AHEC., including specification of white oak glulam beams for several projects TTF managing director Dave Hopkins concluded that the hardwood trade had plenty to build on and the Federation would play its part. “Our goal is to understand hardwood sector drivers to develop more effective TTF work streams for influencing and growing the market,” he said.