TDUK market conference paints gloomy trade picture into 2023

About 120 delegates attended the conference at 8 Northumberland Avenue, central London on November 2, with presentations from TDUK, sawmillers and the wood-based panels industry. This report focuses on the headline statistics and sawmiller presentations.

Nick Boulton, TDUK head of technical and trade, said overall UK solid wood and panel product import volumes were up 15% to 11.7 million m3 in 2021. Some 5.4 million m3 was imported in H1, 2022, with the decreasing import trend having started in the latter period of 2021.

Softwood import volumes decreased by 21% in H1, 2022 (compared to H1, 2021).

Mr Boulton reported an 84% increase in softwood import values in 2021, with the value of whitewood rising 21% in the Jan-July period of 2022 to £869m. Total planed and sawn softwood imports represented a value of £1.34bn in the Jan-July period of 2022 - £38m up on a year ago.

However, softwood import volumes fell by 18% in H1, 2022, while hardwood volumes were up 24% and plywood rose by 6%. Of the other panel product imports, OSB suffered the biggest reverse at -31%.

Hardwood UK import values rose in the first seven months of 2022 to £275m. Hardwood imports volumes from Europe were up 29%.

UK production of sawn wood grew to 3.6 million m3 in 2021 (2020: 3.35 million m3), while wood-based panels production grew steeply to 3.5 million m3 (2020: 2.95 million m3).

Plywood import value increased for all types of plywood in the first seven months of 2022, with hardwood ply values up to £343m (2021: £233m) and softwood ply rising to £103m (2021: £81m.)

The TDUK National Softwood Division is forecasting that UK softwood imports will fall 18% to 6.2million m3 in 2022, before rising slightly by 2% in 2023. UK softwood consumption is forecast to fall to 8.9million m3 in 2022 (2021: 10.9 million m3), before rising slightly to 9.1million m3 in 2023.

Globally, the picture of increasing softwood demand is a major focus point, with global softwood demand expected to rise by 48 million m3 by 2025, surpassing annual demand of 400 million m3 for the first time and raising concerns about raw material availability.

Sawmillers James Jones & Sons, Glennon Brothers and SCA also gave their market observations to delegates.

Keith Ainslie, sales manager at James Jones & Sons, said the big UK and Ireland sawmillers had cut production by approximately 15-20% starting in June this year to adjust to the market situation. One significant producer, he said, had cut one of its mills’ shifts from three to one and is running on night operation to reduce energy costs.

He described the fencing market as having been difficult this year, though some family-owned fencing merchants had still done well and so had the agricultural fencing market.

He said there was still too much structural timber in the market and urged mills, particularly overseas sawmills, to cut production. “There’s no point in burying your head in the sand and ploughing on as normal,” he added.

“We have to cut production to a level that is sustainable or we risk throwing away all the gains and benefits [of the previous price increases].”

“The market is smaller, we have to accept it until there is some genuine growth in the economy again.”

Glennon Brothers’ joint managing director Mike Glennon said the Irish economy was currently performing OK, but predicted a worsening situation going into winter. Rising interest rates, inflation and the cost of energy were problems, he added.

To illustrate, he said the group’s Fermoy sawmill usually had an annual energy bill of £1m-£1.2m. It is now trending at £4m-5m, representing the second most significant cost after raw material.

Irish housebuilding completions were currently good, he explained, but it was the pipeline of housing demand that was the concern.

SCA’s VP of marketing and sales Markus Henningsson said customer purchases had been low earlier this year, but some had started to fill gaps in stocks during the past couple of months, with one major UK importer committing to 2,500m3 in early November.

“There is a little bit more business now compared to a couple of months ago.”

He said SCA was cutting production during Q4 by 10%, describing prices as “unattractive”.

“We feel it’s better to keep the trees standing in the forest for a while until things change.”

Mr Henningsson said the volumes of wood being chipped for energy or converted into wood pellets are increasing, while sawmill energy costs had risen to €5 per m3 of wood produced to €25 per m3.

Further coverage from the TDUK conference will follow in tjhe next issuse of TTJ.