A year of two parts for the panel industry

This point in the calendar provides me with an opportunity to look back over the year just ending and forward to the year that is about to begin. The first part is easy – after all, looking back has some certainty to it!

Surveys in Wood Based Panels International of the global MDF and particleboard industries during 2010/11 have clearly illustrated the overall trend that the world of panels is also divided into two main parts: western Europe and North America, where the markets have been dire and the main stories have concerned closures of substantial capacity volumes; and South America and Asia, where markets have remained strong and the main stories have concerned new mills and lines.

Bucking the European trend have been Turkey and eastern Europe, where new capacity is still being built, with more planned in the next couple of years.

Elsewhere, Brazil and China were the main sources of new capacity in 2010/11 – and going forward to 2014 in some cases.

Now for the hard part: where will markets go in 2012? I have asked a number of industry experts exactly that question and, as you would expect, nobody has a confident answer.

The major machinery suppliers, and thus good market barometers, Siempelkamp and Dieffenbacher, both have bulging order books and production booked into 2013.

One market that has been consistently ‘up’ for some years now is China, but Heinz Classen, managing director of Siempelkamp Machinery and Plant, admits that may be changing.

“China is a little bit quieter these days because the Chinese government is slowing down the country’s economic growth, but we still have 14 lines of four foot width on order, with one start-up every two months. That should keep us busy for probably the next year.”

Dieffenbacher feels that to offer a reliable outlook for future market development would be speculation. It says it can be considered, however, that board producers will increasingly have to face the issues of raw material scarcity, cost pressure and changing buying behaviour of the final consumers.

But I think the biggest uncertainty about 2012 and beyond is certainly down to the Eurozone crisis. I am certainly not qualified to comment on that. The trouble is, it seems, neither is anyone else, given the uniqueness of the problem – and the incredible fact that nobody saw the inevitability of its coming in the first place.

Mike Botting is editor of TTJ sister title Wood Based Panels International.