First whispers of green shoots

The idea of someone in the timber trade saying “green shoots” in public conjures up those old HM Bateman cartoons, like the one of “the man who lit his cigar before the royal toast”. Someone does something beyond the pale and everyone else looks as if they’re about to have an apoplectic fit.

But the UK Timber Frame Association has uttered those almost forgotten words referring to timber frame sales into private housing,

After such a long and gruelling economic haul, it’s understandable that we’ve all become cautious about mentioning possible glimmers of light on the business horizon. And no-one yet is claiming that we’re out of the woods on any front. The euro crisis is clearly nowhere near over and UK construction overall remains at a low ebb. As our timber frame market report this week underlines, the more upbeat comments about the current state of trade are largely confined to private housebuilding and self-build. The reports of more activity in the private sector are also tempered with the rider that it is largely confined to the south-east and that developers are still pushing suppliers down on price and the social housing sector is reported to have become more difficult.

But – and whisper it softly – maybe there are generally more positive signs now. Newspaper business pages aren’t quite the gloomy read they were. In fact last week’s Sunday Times almost left readers with a spring in the step. A range of business opinion said the UK had dodged a double dip recession, the CBI talked up our manufacturing and a piece under the headline “Chancellor’s headache eases” said we may even undershoot the 2011-2012 official borrowing requirement by £10bn.

While they’ve covered some more downturn casualties, the pages of TTJ in recent weeks have also included an upturn in upbeat stories. Improved results from Barratts and Persimmon do seem to show construction slowly turning a corner. And as well as a post-results 13% share price rise, Persimmon also announced expansion of its Space4 timber frame plant.

Travis Perkins this week also reported a 37% jump in profit, while a bullish Jewson boss Peter Hindle said its small to medium-sized builder customers were busy.

Modified wood and MDF specialist Accsys reports a sale rise too, while Scott Pallets has made two more acquisitions and Wyckham Blackwell has launched a new business to supply the self-build timber frame market.

Meanwhile, the Timber Expo show, which this year will occupy 50% more space at Coventry’s Ricoh Arena, has announced that it is already 60% booked.

More intangible, perhaps, but still encouraging, has been a general feeling of positivity coming from at least some in the trade. In the last TTJ, Meyer Timber talked about its growth plans following its move to a massive new HQ distribution hub. This week Weinig UK MD Malcolm Cuthbertson talks about its latest game-changing technology and “ambitious growth targets” for 2012.

Projecting forward, Mr Hindle also said that when the downturn is finally behind us, timber is set to play a massive part in the UK’s drive to sustainable construction “because it’s sustainable and it’s back in fashion”.

Last, but not least, our own good news is that the TTJ Awards are back this year at The Savoy in London. The last time we were there was in the halcyon economic days of 2006. Maybe that’s an omen.