Timber markets

Mark Bowers (UCM): If we’re not in a better place in 2016 we’re in trouble, but, if we adapt, we can be. There’s huge value in our product that has yet to be fully appreciated, and we can exploit that but the next five years will increasingly be about raw material supply and access to it. The UK must appreciate we’re in a global market, that the fibre is not ours by right. Rising global demand will bring structural changes in our industry and necessitate product changes and development.

Peter Latham (James Latham): There were predictions when I joined the trade in the 1970s that in 2000 we’d already be facing timber shortages and soaring prices. That it didn’t happen was partly down to development of better forestry, more quick growing plantations and better use of wood in products like MDF. But whether these will continue to improve at the same rate as global demand is uncertain. I believe by 2016 we’ll see shortages and rising prices in all industrial materials, not just timber. But for us I don’t think that’s a bad thing because timber has been historically under-valued. So five years from now volumes will be not much more than now and prices higher. Our customers and we will have to use the material better and that will include more factory assembly of wood building components and systems.

Sheam Satkuru-Granzella (Malaysian Timber Council): We’ll inevitably see continuing pressure on timber supply from increasing demand from the rising industrial powers like China and India, so the resource does need to be used far more intelligently. I agree that some increase in timber prices is to be welcomed, but if we see them rocketing, there’s a danger we might be outpriced by other materials. To our advantage, though there is rising concern over the energy and fossil fuel usage of these man-made products, especially now, following the Fukushima disaster, that nuclear power is seen even less as the easy energy solution. What is key is that we all, eastern timber producers and western consumers, work in partnership so that our guys on the ground can meet your requirements in an increasingly competitive market.

John White (Timber Trade Federation): Progress may be slow and steady, but the economy will be better by 2016. I also believe that we’re on the cusp of getting the true value of timber recognised and that’s down to the sustainable construction agenda and sustainable development in the round. These will come to dominate the market and political debate and buying considerations. Getting our ducks in a row to capitalise on timber’s environmental credentials is a challenge. But through Wood for Good and the efforts of the TTF and other organisations we are beginning the conversation that will allow us to achieve the one voice we need to make ourselves heard in the sustainable construction discussion, where we have so much to talk about.

Richard Harris (University of Bath): One vital area to consider is further and higher education. With the introduction of the £9,000 maximum university tuition fee, it will go through huge change. As students will have to pay for public education anyway, we’ll see an increase in private provision, giving industry, including timber, the opportunity to get involved and ensure they get the people with the skills and knowledge they need. For timber, that’s especially important to ensure it’s processed, manufactured, specified, and used on site correctly.

Another reason for optimism is the UK still has a shortage of homes, which is why prices haven’t collapsed in the recession. Demand will come back and, due to this shortage, come back quickly and timber will have the advantage as it can respond quickly in the form of prefabricated housing.

We’ll also see consultants – structural engineers and architects – moving much more to performance specifying of products and systems. That will mean working far closer with industry on precise performance specifications and preferring industries that can collaborate with them to supply products and systems to meet them.